This report will offer evidence-based advice on where to invest to best contribute to solving the ongoing energy crisis.
Over time, well over half of the total electricity produced (61.34%) has come from fossil fuels, i.e coal, oil and gas. A further quarter (24.53%) has come from renewable sources, i.e. hydro, wind, solar and biofuels. Nuclear generated power accounts for the rest.
Between 1965 to 2019, global energy consumption approximately quadrupled from 45,420 MWh to 161,531 MWh.
From the mid 1960s, global energy consumption was growing at an annual average rate of 5.4%. Consumption falls have been corrolated with high oil prices, e.g. in 1974 and 1975, annual average growth dropped to 0.53% because of OAPEC embargoes whilethe Iranian Revolution saw energy consumption decline by an average of 0.6% between 1980 and 1982.
Consumption growth slowed to 2.27% (peaking at 4.91% in 2004) until the global financial crisis saw consumption cut by 1.53% in 2009. However, from 2010 the growth rate recovered.
In 2020, a further slump in consumption of 4.28% occurred, likely due to reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic, however, it seems likely that growth will resume.
Increases in energy consumption have not been spread evenly across the planet.
Table 1 shows that in Asia, Africa and Oceania, total electricity consumption peaked in 2019. However, in Europe and North and South America, total consumption peaked earlier.
| Continent | Year | Population | Total Consumption (TWh) | % Peak Global Consumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 2019 | 4,601,371,404 | 83,820 | 50.28% |
| Europe | 1990 | 711,036,697 | 34,423 | 20.65% |
| North America | 2018 | 582,639,378 | 33,813 | 20.28% |
| South America | 2014 | 408,493,800 | 7,036 | 4.22% |
| Africa | 2019 | 1,307,798,033 | 5,634 | 3.38% |
| Oceania | 2019 | 42,038,490 | 1,971 | 1.18% |
Considering per capita consumption (see Table 2), peak usage for Asia still occurs in 2019. However, all other regions peak much earlier.
| Continent | Year | Population | Per Capita Consumption (TWh) | % Peak Global Consumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 2019 | 4,601,371,404 | 1.88 | 28.54% |
| Europe | 2008 | 732,957,549 | 1.84 | 27.79% |
| North America | 2007 | 524,300,845 | 1.73 | 26.23% |
| Oceania | 1981 | 23,503,486 | 0.53 | 7.96% |
| Africa | 2010 | 1,029,586,930 | 0.33 | 5.02% |
| South America | 2013 | 404,561,951 | 0.30 | 4.48% |
Between 1970 and 2020, both Asia and Africa have seen high rates of population growth. All other continents have grown at much slower rates.
The jump in European population between 1984 and 1985 comes from a change in countries included in the data. Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia and Ukraine were added in 1984. This significantly altered both the regional population size and electricity consumption figures.
Electricity consumption for all continents has generally risen over time. Furthermore, all continents are mostly reliant on a mix of fossil fuels, except for South America where coal is effectively replaced by hydroelectric sources.
The effects of the oil crises of the mid and late 1970s can be seen to a greater or lesser degree in the oil data for all continents.
Oceania has the lowest overall consumption of all sources of electricity, which can be accounted for by having the smallest continental population by a significant margin.
Fossil fuels are the main contributors and usage of oil and gas sourced electricity has risen steadily across the period. However, since 2008, use of coal has been in decline.
Hydroelectric power has been mostly constant contributor after fossil fuels, however since the late 1990s, solar and wind have become more significant contributors.
Oceania is a nuclear-free zone.
Electricity consumption in Africa is powered by fossil fuels and oil and gas usage continue to rise. However, since 2008, the coal usage has plateaued.
A constant small amount of hydroelectric power has been in use for the entire period, with a similar amount of nuclear power since 1984-5.
Renewable sources have only been used since the late 1990s. However, a sharp increase in the use of wind power since 2014, has seen it overtaking both nuclear and hydro consumption in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
South America has mainly been dependent on oil for electricity consumption, but this has been on the decline since 2014. Gas usage has also reduced since 2017.
Unlike any other continent, hydro electric power has provided more electricity than other fossil sources (coal and gas) since 1971. There has been a steady increase in the usage, though this has declined slightly since a peak in 2011.
Some nuclear power has been used since 1974, but has been overtaken by biofuels since their introduction in the late 1980s and by wind power in 2015 Solar power also seems likely to overtake nuclear before 2030.
North America is highly dependent on fossil fuels. However since 2008, the use of gas has increased significantly, while coal usage has plumeted.
Hydropower has been a steady contributor across the entire period, with nuclear providing similar amount since 1987.
Other renewables have become more prevalent since the late 1980s, with solar and wind experiencing rapid, and increasing, growth since 2005.
European consumption is driven by fossil fuels. Reduced consumption since a peak in 1990 has seen oil and coal usage fall significantly, however, gas consumption has continued to trend upwards.
Nuclear and hydro powered consumption have remained relatively stable since 1985.
Since the mid 1990s, there has been a significant increase in both wind and solar powered consumption.
Fossil fuels account for the majority of electricity consumption. The use of oil and gas use has risen consistently since 1970. However, between 2000 and 2015, the use of coal produced electricity in Asia more than doubled, overtaking oil as the most used energy source in 2004. This has been driven by coal use in China.
Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 is reflected in a n% drop in nuclear consumption, which did not recover until 2019.
Hydropower has been in use across the entire time period and usage has been climbing more rapidly since the turn of the millennium. It remains the most used renewable source, however, both wind (since 2003) and solar (since 2009) have started to gain more traction.
Overall, between 1990 and 2019, the percentage of people lacking access to electricity fell across all income level groups.
However, in the lowest income group there have been three notable interruptions to the downward trend. In 2005 and 2011, the downward trend was reversed resulting in more people lacking access, and between 2012 and 2015, the rate of decrease slowed to nearly zero. Importantly, the current rate of decrease is also insufficient to meet the target of “universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030” from the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (United Nations 2015).
In the lower middle income group, despite an overall downward trend, increases in population without access to electricity occurred in 2001 and 2011.
Man-made climate change, driven by so called ‘greenhouse gases,’ is one of the most significant global risks in the short and long term. While all continents still heavily reliant on inefficient and highly polluting fossil fuels for electricity production, the following animation clearly shows that China and the United States are the main contributors.
Carbon intensity is used to measure of the amount of carbon dioxide produced for each kilowatt hour of electricity generated, i.e. how “clean” the production is. The animation shows that between 2000 and 2020, very little progress has been made in improving carbon intensity of electricity generation around the world.
From the data considered, there are three main areas that would benefit from increased funding. These are:
Investment in the second two areas would aim to reduce the drivers of global climate change, which will disproportionate affect lower income countries.